As a refugee living in the Kakuma camp for over 16 years, my primary concern is survival and finding a way out of the camp. The Global Risks 2023 report presents a detailed analysis of potential global risks over the next ten years, but for me, it is hard to focus on anything beyond the current crisis. Although necessary in a broader context, the future projections of the report do not hold much relevance for me as my circumstances could change at any moment.
Examining the Immediate Impact on Refugees
Given my current situation, I have chosen to overlook the 10-year risk report and focus on the immediate concerns that matter to my community and me. Issues such as inflation, debt and economic downturn, highlighted in the report, directly impact the lives of refugees like me. The report mentions how inflation rates have risen above 80% in some countries and how this could lead to a cost-of-living crisis and difficulties in servicing historically high debt loads. As a refugee, I can attest to the fact that inflation and economic downturns make it even harder to survive in the camp.
Furthermore, the report also highlights the risk of societal polarization and erosion of social cohesion. These issues are particularly relevant to the refugee community as we have already lost our homes, families and communities. Any further erosion of social cohesion within the camp can lead to a decline in social stability and individual and collective well-being.
In conclusion, the Global Risks 2023 report comprehensively analyses potential global risks over the next ten years. Still, as a refugee, my current reality does not allow me to think that far ahead. I have chosen to focus on the immediate concerns that matter to me and my community, such as inflation, economic downturn and societal polarization, which are directly relevant to the lives of refugees like me.
My Take on the Current Risks
As a refugee living in the Kakuma Refugee Camp for over 20 years, I have witnessed firsthand the devastating effects of global risks on vulnerable communities like mine. The Global Risk 2023 Report paints a dire picture of our challenges and highlights some of the opportunities for change.
1. Economic Downturn:
The report's warnings about inflation, debt and interest rate rises hit close to home for me and my fellow refugees. We have always struggled to make ends meet, and these economic pressures make it even harder.
The report mentions that many countries are trying to balance managing inflation without triggering a deep or prolonged recession. Still, from my perspective, it often feels like the needs of refugees and other marginalized groups are not being considered in these decisions.
The report also notes that nearly 90% of central banks have raised interest rates in 2022, which is a significant shift from the loose financial conditions that characterized the previous decade. This will likely negatively impact developing countries' economies and make it even harder for refugees to find work and support themselves.
2. Geoeconomic Warfare:
The report states that "Geoeconomic confrontation" is ranked the third-most severe risk over the next two years by GRPS respondents. This is a concern for me as a refugee because it highlights the vulnerability of communities like mine to economic policy that is increasingly directed towards geopolitical goals.
The report also mentions that countries seek to build "self-sufficiency" and achieve "sovereignty" from rival powers. This can be achieved through onshoring and "friend-shoring" global supply chains. Still, these policies may negatively impact developing countries, making it even harder for refugees to find work and support themselves.
The report also highlights that economic levers are also being used to constrain the rise of rivals proactively. This includes delisting foreign companies, extensive use of the foreign direct product rule and export controls on critical technologies and intellectual property, and broad constraints on citizens and entities working with designated foreign companies. This can have a negative impact on developing countries, and it will make it even harder for refugees to find work and support themselves.
3. Societal Polarization:
The report states that "Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarisation" has been climbing in the ranks of perceived severity in recent years. This is a concern for me as a refugee because it highlights the vulnerability of communities like mine to political divisions and social instability.
The report also mentions that a widening gap in values and equality poses an existential challenge to both autocratic and democratic systems, as economic and social divides are translated into political ones. This is a concern for me as a refugee because it highlights the vulnerability of communities like mine to political divisions and social instability.
The report also highlights that polarization undermines social trust and, in some cases, has reflected power struggles within a political elite more than underlying ideological divisions. This is a concern for me as a refugee because it highlights the vulnerability of communities like mine to political divisions and social instability.
Conclusions
In conclusion, the Global Risks 2023 Report paints a bleak picture of the future, with many risks and challenges facing the world today. From my perspective as a refugee living in the Kakuma camp for over 20 years, I can attest to the devastating impact that many of these risks can have on vulnerable communities like mine. The erosion of social cohesion and societal polarisation, economic downturn, inflation and debt crises, and geoeconomic warfare can potentially worsen our already dire situation.
However, it is essential to note that this report also highlights the resilience and resourcefulness of individuals and communities in the face of adversity. It is through the collective efforts of organizations like StepUp.One, is that refugees like myself can be reskilled and allowed to contribute to society rather than just being seen as a burden. It is crucial that we continue to work together to find solutions to these pressing global risks and that we do not lose sight of the humanity and potential of those affected by them.